Pakatan Harapan’s 1st Anniversary as the Government of Malaysia

Pakatan Harapan’s first anniversary as the Federal government of Malaysia is here and KAJIDATA’s latest public opinion poll conducted at the end of March can help illuminate the Rakyat’s mood towards Pakatan Harapan at this notable juncture.

While there are a lot of negativity towards Pakatan Harapan, there are also reasons to be positive. Starting with the positive, KAJIDATA has found the following in the latest polling exercise:

1. a)  42% are satisfied with Tun Mahathir’s performance and 37% are dissatisfied

2. b)  Only 34% are happy with BN’s performance which is less than the 39% for PH

3. c)  40% prefer to vote for PH which is bigger than for PAS (16%) or BN (15%). PH still has bigger support than of BN and PAS combined

4. d)  PH has solid support in states that it governs. This includes Sarawak which bodes well for its chances in the upcoming Sarawak state election

As for the negative:

1. a)  42% of Malaysians believe that Malaysia is headed in the wrong direction versus 35% who think otherwise

2. b)  39% are unhappy with PH’s performance and only 37% are happy

3. c)  43% are unhappy with PH’s management of the economy and only 33% are happy

4. d)  38% of youth prefer to vote for BN and PAS combined compared to only 33% for PH

5. e)  38% of low-income voters prefer to vote for BN and PAS combined compared to only 31% for PH

6. f)  PH has little support in the Malay heartlands of Kelantan and Terengganu which suggests that PH is making little headway in convincing rural Malays that PH is a viable choice

For low-income voters, there is a strong inverse correlation between economic distress and likelihood to support Pakatan Harapan. To contextualise this, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) Consumer Sentiment Index for the 1st Quarter of 2019 is at 85.6 points; which is 5.4 points lower than the value for the previous year of 91.0 points, back when Barisan Nasional and Datuk Seri Najib Razak were still in charge. Analysis revealed that 43% of high- income earners were satisfied with Pakatan Harapan’s management of the economy but only 30% of low-income earners were similarly satisfied. This disparity has a definite political impact whereby low-income voters are the only group who are more likely to vote for a combination of Barisan Nasional and PAS at 38% versus 31% for Pakatan Harapan. High-income earners are polarised with a majority of 51% preferring Pakatan Harapan.

Notwithstanding, 40% of Malaysian voters still prefer Pakatan Harapan. This is 9% more than the 31% that a theoretical combination of Barisan Nasional and PAS would enjoy. This suggests that whilst many are disappointed with the performance of Pakatan Harapan, people still see the coalition as the most viable government given the alternative of a Barisan Nasional that is tainted by amongst others, the misadventures of its previous leader and of PAS which is strongly distrusted by non-Muslims who make up around 35% of voters.

Pakatan Harapan may find it difficult to persuade Malay-Muslim voters that it and in particular, DAP are friendly towards their interests but it may be easier and sufficient to convince them that their economic interests are taken care of. Policies that reduce the cost of living, raise wages via productivity gains and maintain or even increase the purchasing power of the Ringgit should be vigorously pursued. This may also include reforming the Bumiputra economic policies.

There is still time for Pakatan Harapan to improve its standing and our studies and analyses indicate that the economic well-being of the Rakyat is one of the most significant factors in determining political allegiance.

A total of n=1,007 Malaysians aged above 21 years old from all Malaysian states and territories were interviewed by telephone between 26 to 29 March 2019 for KAJIDATA’s survey of Malaysian sentiments towards politics.