KUALA LUMPUR – To understand Pakatan Harapan’s chances in the upcoming Rantau by-election in Negeri Sembilan it is best to start at Semenyih. Like Semenyih, Rantau has a similar electoral profile where most voters are Malays with a sizeable Chinese and Indian population. Both Rantau and Semenyih are close to large metropolitan areas but also distant enough to have both rural and urban features.
Pakatan Harapan’s defeat to Barisan Nasional in the recent Semenyih by-election was not unexpected. According to various running indicators from as far back as 2015, it was clear to KAJIDATA that support for Pakatan Harapan, particularly amongst the youth has declined significantly since the coalition’s victory on 9th May 2018. KAJIDATA’s long term political tracking has an index that tracks the Rakyat’s satisfaction towards Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional and the Prime Minister. Pakatan Harapan’s satisfaction ratings have dropped by 16.4 points from just after GE14 to December 2018. The drop from the youth category was even bigger at 20.6 points. On the economic front, MTEM’s Economic Confidence Score (data collected by KAJIDATA) recorded a drop in economic confidence by 6.5 points since GE14. As of December 2018, the score is almost back to the level recorded when Barisan Nasional was in power. Looking at the results by age groups, what is most notable is that the support from the youth has declined the most, in this case, by 13.7 points. Though the decline in economic confidence was true for all age groups, the large drop within the youth bracket suggests that they may have become disillusioned with Pakatan Harapan’s management of the national economy. A particularly controversial manifesto U-turn by Pakatan Harapan that affected the youth was PTPTN’s decision not to delay repayments of PTPTN loans until an individual earns an income of at least RM4,000. How much this episode or any other contributed to the loss of support for Pakatan Harapan will require further research. Our indicators now reveal that the youth, whom before GE14 were the most likely to support Pakatan Harapan have now become the group that is most likely to oppose it. The younger generation is now the least satisfied with Pakatan Harapan in addition to having the lowest economic confidence. The Semenyih by-election shows that there has indeed been a reversal in youth support to the benefit of Barisan Nasional. In line with KAJIDATA’s long-term political tracking, younger voters have now become more supportive of Barisan Nasional rather than Pakatan Harapan. In retrospect, if votes of the youth for the Semenyih by-election were switched between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan would have won by a majority of 642 votes. The political implications of this trend decided the Semenyih by-election in Barisan Nasional’s favour and will likely have a similar effect on the Rantau by-election. According to KAJIDATA’s political tracking index, prior to GE14, Pakatan Harapan had always received more support from the youth compared to Barisan Nasional and the results of the recent General Election affirmed it. However, this trend has shifted dramatically. Barisan Nasional’s share of the youth’s votes in Semenyih increased from 30.2% in GE14 to 51.6% for the Semenyih by-election. Pakatan Harapan experienced a drop from 51.9% to 43.7%. It is critical for Pakatan Harapan to address the drop in the youth’s support as this loss is not countervailed by an increase in support of undecided voters or older voters who are more likely to remain with Barisan Nasional. Young and undecided voters have yet to solidify their political allegiances and whether they approve of Pakatan Harapan’s performance will influence their support in the next general election. It is imperative that Pakatan Harapan understand in detail why the youth have turned away from the coalition and what can be done to win them back. Respondents were selected on the basis of random stratified sampling along ethnicity, gender, age and state according to the national demographics. The survey was conducted via Voice Activated Telephone Interview (VATI). The complete cross-tabulation report may be obtained by contacting KAJIDATA Research.
